The US will impose significant copper tariffs, leading to a sharp rise in copper prices in the US [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market: Overnight LME copper opened at $9,835/mt, fluctuating considerably in early trading. Prices surged to $9,887.5/mt near session close before sharply pulling back to $9,569.5/mt, eventually settling at $9,665/mt with a 1.22% loss. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots while open interest stood at 277,000 lots. Overnight SHFE copper opened at 79,590 yuan/mt, fluctuating downward to 79,330 yuan/mt in early trading. Prices rallied straight to 80,160 yuan/mt near session close before closing at 80,030 yuan/mt with a 0.69% gain. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots while open interest stood at 206,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News: (1) According to CCTV News, Trump threatened hefty tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals during a cabinet meeting. He is considering a 50% tax surcharge on copper imports to the US. Trump stated he still plans to impose tariffs on specific sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. When asked about tariff rates for these products, Trump replied: "I think we'll have 50% on copper."

(2) CPCA data shows China's passenger vehicle retail sales reached 2.084 million units in June 2025, up 18.1% YoY and 7.6% MoM. Year-to-date retail sales totaled 10.901 million units, up 10.8% YoY. While previous years saw "low first-half, high second-half" trends, June 2025 sales surged 7% compared to the 2022 peak of 1.94 million units, demonstrating extraordinary growth momentum.

Spot Market: (1) Shanghai: On July 8, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2507 contract were reported at 40-130 yuan/mt, averaging 85 yuan/mt - down 10 yuan/mt MoM. With several trading days remaining before delivery, suppliers are expected to actively offload cargoes when the backwardation exceeds 200 yuan/mt between contracts, suggesting potential further declines in Shanghai spot premiums.

(2) Guangdong: On July 8, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 100 yuan/mt to parity, averaging a 50 yuan/mt discount - down 45 yuan/mt MoM. Despite copper prices continuing to pull back, weak demand persists with spot premiums remaining under pressure. Market attention focuses on whether inventory will continue to build.

(3) Imported Copper: On July 8, warrant prices stood at $20-38/mt for July QP, averaging $1/mt lower MoM. B/L prices reached $46-80/mt for August QP, averaging $11/mt higher MoM. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at $0-20/mt for July QP, averaging $12/mt higher MoM, with pricing referencing mid-to-late July arrival cargoes. Overall market turnover remained basically flat compared to the previous week, though trading activity among traders increased.

(4) Secondary copper: On July 8, secondary copper raw material prices fell 100 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices stood at 73,400-73,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap reached 1,644 yuan/mt, rising 137 yuan/mt MoM. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod stood at 1,060 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, intraday copper prices showed minimal fluctuations, and secondary copper rod enterprises showed weak purchase willingness. Many scrap yards reported procurement volumes of only 1-2 truckloads of secondary copper rods today, with overall trading activity remaining subdued.

(5) Inventories: On July 8, LME copper inventories rose by 5,100 mt to 102,500 mt; SHFE warrant inventories fell by 2,573 mt to 19,109 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, Trump confirmed that a 50% tariff on imported copper will take effect on August 1 without any extension, while US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that 15-20 additional tariff-related letters will be issued in the coming days, with tariffs potentially landing between late July and August 1. These high tariffs propelled COMEX copper prices to their largest single-day gain since 1968, though LME copper initially rose but later retreated. On the fundamental side, domestic market supply showed relatively loose conditions in the spot market due to imported copper arrivals, while demand declined during the off-season. Although high tariffs drove sharp gains in COMEX copper and late-session strength in SHFE copper during the night session, LME copper continues to fall, dropping to approximately $9,700/mt, which is expected to drag SHFE copper lower today.Z10/>》Click to view SMM Metal Database

[The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessments by the SMM research team, provided for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution and avoid relying on this information in place of independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]